Evolution and Climate Change in the Oceans
Many studies look at the potential of organisms to adapt or acclimate to a changing climate. These studies are often based on the assumption that the temperature is going to increase by a certain amount in a given amount of time. The validity of these studies then hinges on the validity of the climate model used. If the rate of temperature increase is lower, for example, then the organism might be able to adapt. Therefore, the climate models on which these research articles are based are very important.
Climate change models include numerous variables, including energy use, economic development, and population growth. Based on the assumptions made about these variables, different outcomes of climate change can be predicted.
http://www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/content/investigations/esu501/esu501page05.cfm (adapted from IPCC)This graph shows that all of the models tend in the same direction, but the overall range of climate change is relatively broad. Therefore, studies should look at both extremes of climate change - what will result from the best-case scenario of minimal temperature increase as opposed to the worst-case scenario of a very large temperature increase? This would show how the effects of variables such as increased fossil fuel use change the outcome of climate change and thus the outcome of various species.
In the Norberg et. al paper published in Nature Climate Change, evolutionary responses are considered from a broader approach. Multiple species are studied in both their patterns of dispersal and evolution. In order to best reduce extinction among species, high genetic diversity and low species dispersal are both contributing factors. An important result is that species will be affected by climate change for hundreds of years even once climate change has stabilized. This means that even if climate change stops, there will still be consequences in biodiversity.
In the Willis and MacDonald paper, it is stated that global temperatures are anticipated to rise 2-4 degrees Celsius in the next century. Then, previous time periods in which the rate of climate change was equal or exceeded that of what is expected were analyzed. Figure 1 from the paper demonstrates the expected increase in temperature across the globe over the next century.
/groups/evolution3000/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=adaptationlist/groups/evolution3000/search/?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=adaptationAdaptationCustomTagSidebarCustomTagSidebar?sort=modifiedDate&sortDirection=reverse&tag=adaptation0/groups/evolution3000/sidebar/CustomTagSidebarmodifiedDate5CustomTagSidebarreverseadaptationAdaptationcustom/groups/evolution3000/search/index.rss?tag=hotlist/groups/evolution3000/search/?tag=hotWhat’s HotHotListHot!?tag=hot1/groups/evolution3000/sidebar/HotListdheubel5dheubel52012-11-14 16:36:03+00:002012-11-14 16:36:03updated5dheubel5dheubel52012-11-09 16:46:53+00:002012-11-09 16:46:53updated4Added tag - hotdheubel5dheubel52012-11-09 16:46:49+00:002012-11-09 16:46:49addTag3I thought this might be helpful in reading through everything. Let me know if you guys like it!dheubel5dheubel52012-11-09 16:46:24+00:002012-11-09 16:46:24updated2First createddheubel5dheubel52012-11-09 16:31:49+00:002012-11-09 16:31:49created1wiki2012-11-14T16:36:03+00:00groups/evolution3000/wiki/de98eFalseTable of Contents/groups/evolution3000/wiki/de98e/Table_of_Contents.htmldheubel55 updatesTable of Contents
Climate Change
Effects of Climate Change in the Environment
Oxygen Levels
Effects o...Falsedheubel52012-11-14T16:36:03+00:00hot/groups/evolution3000/search/index.rss?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomelist/groups/evolution3000/search/?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcomeRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdates?sort=modifiedDate&kind=all&sortDirection=reverse&excludePages=wiki/welcome0/groups/evolution3000/sidebar/RecentChangesListmodifiedDateallRecent ChangesRecentChangesListUpdateswiki/welcomeNo recent changes.reverse5search
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